Deal or no Deal ?

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Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:45 pm

Party preferences aside should we accept the proposed “ Transition Deal “ with the EU?
Is this deal better than no deal ?
Should we walk away?
Should we have another Referendum?

Which way will your MP vote? Ours is a Government Minister and a Remainer, he says he will vote Yes for the deal.

Just asking!

I listened to Jeremy Vine at lunchtime and I’m none the wiser but putting Politics aside and being a pragmatist and with business interests I would back the deal.

Look forward to your input.
Ken
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Bernie R » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:02 pm

The deal seems to have UK still pretty much in the hands of the EU so therefore isn't really delivering what the public voted for.

That said, the 'no deal' deal is a bit scary.

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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Bonesy » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:55 am

My take on the situation.

The deal won't get through parliament.
May will resign.
A general election will be held.
Labour will win.
Corbyn offers a new referendum.
The remainers win.
The leavers call for another vote.
And so it goes.

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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby bjones » Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:20 am

The deal seems to offer some of what most people want but not all of what anyone wants..... Well hello, why would anyone think we would get it ALL our own way?
That said, I think it was Ernie who told us that the way the EU have treated the negotiations has changed his stance on Brexit. It's reinforced mine.
I'm sure I'm not alone in feeling that too many politicians on both sides are using this issue as a way to advance their own careers. If only they'd all take the same stance as in war and just bloody well "get behind the donkey" and work together. Never thought I'd hear myself say that I feel sorry for a Tory PM.
The pragmatist in me says we should back the deal with the exception of the "Irish question" being open ended.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:28 am

It’s “Hotel California”

You can checkout anytime but you can never leave.

Just about sums it up. :roll: K
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby graham01 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:36 pm

total chaos. :( :( :(
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:58 pm

Now they are telling us how worse off we’ll be if we leave. How is that selling the deal? Tories divide getting wider!
Labour Deputy Leader says if we can’t force a “vote of no confidence” or a “general election” we might have to support the calls for a second referendum.
Both the Liberals and SNP have at least been clear, they want to stay in EU.
Confused of Tunbridge Wells
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby graham01 » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:06 pm

I repeat my previous statement....total chaos.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Lorem Ipsum » Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:09 pm

John and myself would like some of this,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbhktzkGoH0
This post is copyright and may not be reproduced or republished in entirety or in part in any way, shape or form.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby graham01 » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:01 pm

Very good choice of tune.i doubt that those in charge would know the truth if it bit them on the bum.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Shelagh » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:57 pm

Should have stuck to the dancing :wink:
https://youtu.be/KK8gucz4XcQ
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:31 am

Paris Saturday December 1 2018

Proposed diesel tax increase in France.

Image

Avenue Foch

Image

View from the Arc de Triomphe

Image

Place de l'Etoile

Image

The worst economic decision made by any British government was fighting the Germans and Italians in 1939.
It bankrupted the nation.In today's money we owed £861 billion to the US at the end of WW II.
On December 31 2006 Gordon Brown made the last payment to discharge the debt.
Rationing in the UK was ended at midnight July 4 1954.
People were different then.

Regards

Dan
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby lily8 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:57 am

Has the whole fiasco been part of some cunning plan :evil: :evil: :evil:
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:57 am

No Lily, we just got the vote wrong the first time.
We'll be given a second chance to get the right answer, then get stuck in the remedial class.

Image

France accepted the Maastricht Treaty with a 51% yes vote, September 20 1992. Funnily enough there was no outcry for another vote.

Regards

Dan
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:06 pm

Amsterdam one month ago.

Image

Regards

Dan
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:38 pm

Image
Image

Regards

Dan
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:34 am

From this morning's Zero Hedge.
Hopefully things will go peaceably on Saturday, but stuff like this can get out of hand very quickly.

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

Regards

Dan
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby lily8 » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:56 am

Thanks Dan, shades of 1789, storming the Bastille, though many of the protesters are known activists there would appear to be a large number of ordinary folk who just seem sick of these rich get richer times. You know putting on my rose red specs maybe it will be a good thing Britain gets out of the EU and starts to get back it's own industries in days past British made was best in the world.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:06 am

I think that’s the point Dan is making Lily, sure he will find some positives for us to balance the argument :wink: K
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:49 am

My best guess is that there is a 5% chance that Britain will leave the EU.

I posted about Paris because we have a gendarme in the family who, if he's not on duty in Paris, will be on duty in Marseilles on Saturday.
I posted about Amsterdam because my older brother has lived there for 40 years,so I follow what goes on there.
I also know the name of the Prime Minister of Belgium.

Our main problems.
On average, Westminster receives just over 3000 statutory instruments (SIs), or items delegated legislation each year.
Parliament debates about 1000 of these. The last SI to be rejected by Westminster was in 1978.
40 years of saying yes, irrespective of political parties.
After the referendum result, Australia and New Zealand offered Whitehall help in negotiating trade deals, because we had nobody at the Department of Trade who'd ever performed such an arcane task. A whole government department whose job had the word "Trade" emblazoned on the brass name-plate outside the building.
Whitehall is also completely lacking in the ability to draw up legislation. Again, it's been a cut and paste job of the output from Brussels for the past 40 years with the HMSO crest stuck on the frontispiece.
On staying in the EU we will be given a deadline for joining the euro, thus losing the last scrap of independence offered by the Bank of England.

For balance. Liverpool won the derby match.

Regards

Dan
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:02 pm

Just reading the BofE boss answers to Select Committee, food prices will rise by 10% on Brexit no deal.
Toyota man says a deal essential to keep their UK operations in production and viable.
Us in Kent have experienced the impact of slow or closed ports,if we have no deal we will see chaos on the motorway system as Customs checks will create havoc. I personally have seen lorries parked 2 abreast on the full length of the M20 and part of the M2 and M26 for several days.
Like Toyota many companies operate JIT supply for raw materials or parts imported from EU ( Toyota keeps 4 hours production of components in their stock ) We import a huge amount of fresh food from the EU and likewise we export huge amount of food items and manufactured goods to the EU which is an established,stable, huge market.
Exit by all means, that’s what the Country voted for but do so with a deal as proposed, there is little choice IMO.
Ken
ps Dan, by the way I also know the Belgian PM is Mr Michel, infact I was 30 metres from him at the Ypres Memorial Gate.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:32 pm

Macron just blinked.
Tax hike has been deferred.

First sentence in my last post Ken.I don't believe we will leave the EU.
Either no Brexit or second Peoples'/Losers' Referendum.
From Luxembourg today, legally Brexit can be cancelled.
We will accept EU demands in toto. We will not be in any position to re-negotiate.
Every BoE forecast since pre-Brexit vote has markedly underestimated the performance of the economy.
Andrew Haldane put it down to the forecasts not responding to the irrationality of the people.

Regards

Dan
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Bonesy » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:29 pm

Cameron and Ferage have an awful lot to answer for.

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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:12 pm

Farage has resigned from UKIP today.
He did it live on LBC radio.
He's up to something.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby beardedpapa » Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:46 pm

Watching the latest events from afar with interest and my Australian passport safely tucked away

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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:43 am

Well, is anyone any the wiser about this, I’m not? :( Ken
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Bonesy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:08 pm

Watching Question Time last night (yawn) :roll: it appears nobody has got clue about what Tuesday will bring.


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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby beardedpapa » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:06 am

Well after the No Vote saga it is being reported down under that the vultures are circling in anticipation of a leadership spill. Other than Boris, one other name being bandied about is Sajid Javid, never heard of him, is he a real contender?

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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:22 am

Yes, a vote of no confidence in PM will take place later today.
Expected she will lose and a General Election will follow.
Honestly, I can’t think of a politician around of any party today who could lead us . :( Ken
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:36 am

BP, Sajid Javid has been Home Sec since this Spring. He is from Lancashire, of Pakistani origins. He was a banker and represents a Midlands constituency I believe. Ken
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Patricia » Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:12 pm

Totally perplexed by this statement ..........
"The worst economic decision made by any British government was fighting the Germans and Italians in 1939.
It bankrupted the nation.In today's money we owed £861 billion to the US at the end of WW II.
On December 31 2006 Gordon Brown made the last payment to discharge the debt.
Rationing in the UK was ended at midnight July 4 1954.
People were different then.
Regards Dan"

Are you actually suggesting that it would be preferable for us all to be speaking "German?"
Last edited by Patricia on Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Ernie Jackson. (Bunty) » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:00 pm

The country voted to leave, TM was limbered with trying to do just that but now, because it certainly is not an easy task, folk are blaming her?

Seems someone is now trying to shoot the messenger.
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Invicta » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:33 pm

Vlad must be rubbing his hands. :wink: K
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Patricia » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:34 pm

Nobody is trying to "Shoot the Messenger" just wanting
clarification of such a statement!
It seems really sad that World War II fatality statistics estimates of total deaths ranging from
70 million to 85 million.Deaths directly caused by the war, military and civilians killed are estimated
at 50-56 million persons, for WHAT!
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Re: Deal or no Deal ?

Postby Dan » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:55 pm

No Patricia. I'm saying if you base every argument on economic outcomes only, you can end up making the wrong decision.
Money isn't everything though from what I hear from the BBC and the BoE it's the only thing.
And yes Britain was bankrupt the day WW II ended.
We may not be speaking Gerrman now, but we will need Germany's, and only Germany's, blessing to leave the EU in one piece.Forget the other 26, they are make weights.
I think the Germans would be stupid to allow such an important contributor to the EU economy to leave.

And I still think we will be remaining in the EU, without a second referendum.
I think a second referendum would be an awful gamble, and hugely damaging for the country.
The polls mean nothing. I've probably said this before, but according to the polls we voted to remain in the EU, and Hilary Clinton is President of the USA.
One last word on the BoE. The Brexit scenarios published by the Bank , I think there were 4 or 5, included every scenario bar one - that we remain in the EU.
The BoE is maintaining , what Richard Nixon, bless him, used to call plausible deniabilty.
When we do stay in they'll be able to say, "Well we didn't see that coming"
The least messy way out of this will be to withdraw Article 50, and then the real fun and games will start.

On the subject of impartiality, that's a canard.
Kamal Ahmed the Editor of BBC News is to be applauded for his honesty in saying the considered opinion of the experts/ establishment , is that with Brexit the people made the wrong decision. The BBC's job is to reflect this, not to give equal credence to Leave/Remain arguments. It's analogous to the Climate Change argument,

That's why any good economic data is prefaced by "In spite of Brexit..." , poor economic data is prefaced by"Concerns over Brexit...". That is BBC policy.
Also, there are only people looking for a "hard Brexit" never a " hard Remain".
In the pea and shell game semantics is everything.

It's best not trying to understand any of this or even argue about it. The decision will be made for us.
Brexit means Brexit,? Have none of you ever watched Being There starring Peter Sellers. A simple minded gardener spouts nonsense phrases which people construe as having a profound significance that just isn't there. The novel is worth a read as well.

Our job is to pay our taxes and die. Just make sure you've paid all your taxes before you die.

I'm now going back to posting pictures, it's more fun.

Tell me when this is all over.

Dan
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